11/15 – The Chief’s “Cloudy & Windy” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A deepening low pressure system which moved through the area overnight is now racing east along the northern Gulf Coast early this morning. The speed of its progression and accompanied convection is quicker than previous forecast. Thus, rain chances have been dropped from 40 to 20% through mid-morning. Strong high pressure will build into the region and usher in quite cold air for this time of year. Highs and lows will be 15+ degrees below normal, topping out in the mid-50s and dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Quiet weather expected otherwise.

A tightening gradient will bring windy conditions the next few days with winds gusting into the 20/30 mph range during the day, then dropping off into the low teens overnight. The wind chill will play a factor the next few night coupled with cold temperatures.

Generally speaking, the upper level disturbance will exist over the region throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Other minor disturbances will rotate through the base of the main trough every 2-3 days which will aide in maintaining unseasonably cool temps. Models suggest that one particular disturbance a bit farther south than others will track across TX and LA late in the week. This will try to draw moisture northward but looks like most of the shower activity associated with this system should be mostly limited to coastal areas of Mississippi. One caveat to this period of the forecast, and this weekend for that matter, is that model abilities to resolve such weak features that far out are on the lower end of the spectrum. Therefore, confidence on the exact placement of rain isn’t particularly high.

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