10/8 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

It’s been a mostly dry day today with most of the showers and
thunderstorms along a boundary with higher
precipitable (PW) water  in the southeastern coastal waters.

The higher PW near the coast and offshore, with values estimated
in the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range, is expected to move north across
most of the forecast area on Monday with deep southerly flow to
the west of deep layer high pressure to the east. This should
allow for good coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms
starting in mainly offshore to some coastal locations late tonight
and early Monday, then spreading inland during the late morning
and afternoon Monday. Am expecting at least 60-70% of locations to
see measurable rain across the forecast area with fairly high
chances continuing at least into the evening hours Monday night.
With such high PW, cannot rule out locally heavy rainfall amounts.
Am still forecasting rather warm temperatures for highs despite
the high rain chances and higher humidity.

The higher PW will likely remain over the more inland areas on
Tuesday with somewhat lower values expected near the coast. Have
indicated a gradient with the chance of rain with near 60% well inland to 30
to 40% near the coast. Expect another warm and humid day with
highs in the 85 to 90 degree range.

On Wednesday, the deep layer high will start to build/move west
across the north Gulf coast region. This will likely suppress the
convective development down to more isolated in nature, which
means the high temperatures will remain a bit on the warm side
with continued higher humidity still in place.

Later this week it is expected to be mainly dry and continued warm period due to
deep layer high pressure over the central Gulf coast region. Will
be watching for that long awaited cold front that may move into
the area late in the weekend. The models do indicate some drier
air which results in some lower low temperatures starting in the
more inland areas Wednesday night and coastal areas Thursday
night. This drier air could hold over the area through the
weekend, then possibly be reinforced when the real cold front
finally arrives.

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