10/22 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

After severe weather this morning and afternoon, we continue to                                                            see most of the activity move into the Florida Panhandle. Expect                                                                to see only lingering clouds and a few showers affect the forecast area later
tonight as the actual cold front sweeps through tonight. Deep
layer northwest flow will then take hold tomorrow. Rapidly
clearing skies are expected in the morning hours, and a much
colder and drier airmass will quickly advect in. Expect to see
highs only rise into the lower to middle 70s tomorrow afternoon
after temperatures cool into the middle 50s tonight. Tomorrow
night, beneath clear skies, temperatures should cool back into
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

A fairly vigorous shortwave trough axis and associated front will
sweep through the area on Tuesday, but the system will be moisture
starved. Expect to see no real sign of the front moving through
other than an increase in wind speeds and a significant drop in
temperatures as deep pool of colder air advects in from the north.
Temperatures should climb back into the lower to middle 70s
Tuesday afternoon before the front moves through. However,
overnight lows Tuesday night will easily fall into the lower to
middle 40s across most of the CWA. Only areas south of the tidal
lakes and along the immediate Louisiana coast should remain in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

The deep cold pool will remain over the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, and expect to see temperatures remain a good 10
to 15 degrees colder than average. Highs should only climb into
the middle 60s, and overnight lows should fall back into the lower
to middle 40s over inland areas Wednesday night. Strong ridging
and subsidence will continue to keep clear skies in place across
the Gulf South.

Both the Euro and GFS are in good agreement on Thursday that the
deep layer ridge axis will begin to shift east of the forecast
area. Expect to see winds shift to a more onshore component
through the day, but moisture advection will be delayed. As a
result, another clear day with low humidity and mild temperatures
in the middle 70s is expected for Thursday. Some moisture should
begin to advect in by Thursday night, and the rise in dewpoints
should result in warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s.
Some fog may also develop Thursday night due to the increase in
low level moisture and relatively light winds.

Model differences continue to persist heading into the upcoming
weekend. All of the guidance is in agreement that another long
wave trough and associated frontal system will affect the forecast
area. However, the GFS and Canadian models are much more
progressive with this feature than the ECMWF. There is currently
about a 18 hour difference in the timing of the frontal passage
and associated unsettled weather, and confidence in either of the
model solutions prevailing is still fairly low. With this in mind,
have opted to continue using a blend of the model solutions
through the weekend. This results in a quick increase in cloud
cover and scattered shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday
afternoon that then persists through the day on Saturday. Rain
chances remain in chance range of 30 to 40 percent due to the
large degree of uncertainty on the timing of the feature from
Friday into Saturday. Both of the models agree that the trough
axis and frontal passage should occur by Saturday night, and have
clearing skies and dry weather in the forecast for Sunday.
Daytime temperatures on Friday and Saturday should generally range
somewhere in the 70s, and lows Friday night should be in the 50s.
After the front moves through, expect to see another period of
strong cold air advection take hold resulting in highs in the 60s
on Sunday.

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