10/6 – Rob Knight’s Tuesday Mid-Morning Forecast
Mid-level clouds will slowly invade this morning and throughout the day today. Winds will remain NE as we will remain locked in an outer trough that extends from the northern gulf to the Yucatan and back into Hurricane Delta. We will also remain on the dry side of this trough axis until Wed or Wed night. So conditions will be quite deceiving and comfortable until the deeper tropical air mass moves into the area.
By Friday, Hurricane Delta is expected to be moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico. While Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico leading up to Friday, nearly all model guidance indicates that it will respond to cooling water temperatures and increasing wind shear by weakening some on approach to the coast. The official forecast indicates a peak intensity of 105kts over the southern/central Gulf then a gradual weakening to 85kts at the last forecast point before landfall. That is to say, while confidence is increasing that Delta will reach its peak intensity before moving into the northern Gulf, we still can’t rule out a major hurricane at landfall.
Although the current track keeps Delta to our west, we must stay weather aware and have the hurricane plan update in the event the track changes.