10/5 – Rob’s Monday Afternoon “Workweek” Forecast
Pleasant conditions today will begin to change heading into Tuesday. Tropical Storm Gamma should weaken as it sits right off the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture on the northern side of the system will be spreading northward towards the local area. Still not sure how much rain will actually reach populated portions of the area but am carrying low rain chances.
TD Delta should be steadily tracking WNW out of the Caribbean and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, models indicate that will be strengthening and expanding in size. In doing so, rain could be spreading as far north of as the Gulf Coast. By Thursday, TD Delta is forecast to be a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico. As it moves into the central Gulf, steering currents are expected to weaken, causing the storm to slow down. At the same time, a weakness developing between high-pressure to the east and west should allow the storm to turn more northward toward the Gulf Coast.
Regarding the intensity, keep in mind that while the Gulf waters near the coast have responded to the recent cold fronts, there is still some very warm water farther off shore. The warm water combined with little wind shear through the short term should allow at least steady strengthening through the short term. Currently the storm is forecast to be a category 2 as it approaches the coast.