10/31 – The Chief’s “Frightfully Ghoulish” Halloween Morning Forecast
Weakness in the upper levels extends from Missouri to Baja California. At the surface, low pressure associated with the weakness was centered over Illinois with a frontal boundary well to our east. Weak high pressure was centered off the Louisiana coastline. A couple of cloud decks across the area, one with bases around 5,000 feet associated with the low pressure over Illinois, the other was a cirrus deck associated with the upper jet departing the base of the trough over Mexico.
The main player in the short term will be the disturbance currently over Mexico that will move across the local area on Tuesday. As it moves toward the upper ridge position off the east coast, it’s expected to deamplify. Lower levels of the atmosphere are relatively dry, and with northeast surface winds expected, no real way for the airmass to moisten up over the next 24 hours. Considering that set up, while there may be a fair amount of mid and high clouds Tuesday, not much, if any, rain is expected to be observed across the local area.
After the passage of the disturbance on Tuesday, upper high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the week. We’ll be on the west side of the ridge as it eventually gets squeezed by an upper trough to our northwest and one over the Bahamas. Still some question as to how close to the area the trough to the west gets as it deamplifies. Model solutions continue to trend drier with a significant majority of ensemble solutions keeping rain chances locally over the weekend well below 50 percent.
Temperatures are expected to average well above normal for the next week, on the order of 7-10 degrees F. Generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.