10/30 – Rob’s “SEVERE WATCH” Afternoon Forecast
A cold front will be moving into eastern Oklahoma/Texas by midnight tonight and stall. As it does this, showers/t-storms will begin to initialize just ahead of the frontal boundary Wednesday morning. The front will become very progressive and begin moving east again by Wednesday afternoon or early evening. This is also when consolidated the showers/t-storms along and ahead of the front will develop into a squall line as it moves into Louisiana. The line and issues will begin to approach Baton Rouge by late evening or around midnight. The line of showers/t-storms should be over the eastern half of the area before daylight Thursday and out of the area around noon Thursday.
Cloudy skies and some lingering light rain or drizzle will remain once the front moves through. This may persist into Thursday night.
Most locations should see anywhere from 1 to 2 inches and an isolated higher amount or two cannot be ruled out. This amount of rain will come down within a short amount of time and could cause some flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas that normally flood during heavy rain events.
The STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) continues to lock the area in marginal and slight risk for severe.
This looks very good and will cross the midnight hour Wed night into Thursday as the line moves through. All modes of severe weather is expected with this system with a higher emphasis on straight line damaging winds. Most if not all strong to severe thunderstorms should occur with the line. Friday will bring cooler temps and sunny skies heading into the weekend.