10/24 – The Chief’s “BIG Changes Ahead” Monday morning Forecast
The main weather impacts for the local area come in Tuesday as an upper level disturbance digs south through the 4 Corners region will begin heading eastward today. Some of the initial pull east appears to come from absorption of moisture from the Baja of California as well as the remnants of Roslyn currently in northern Mexico. An upper level high pressure currently encompassing the area will weaken on its western side. Moisture will be drawn between those 2 features and initiate isolated to scattered showers over LA and MS. This activity will just be a precursor to t-storms Tuesday.
A surface low will develop just ahead of the upper low with a cold front attached. A quasi linear line of thunderstorms look to develop along this frontal boundary in east Texas and will be marching into and through Louisiana in the early morning hours of Tuesday. This feature will eventually track eastward through the area from roughly 7 AM 12 PM. Models indicate the pre-storm environment to be supportive of severe weather but with limitations. As that line reaches and moves through the area, models suggest it will break down quite a bit, with mainly just scattered or less thunderstorms moving across the local area. Either way, still think there’s a decent chance for at least a few severe storms. The environment will be capable of supporting weak tornadoes and damaging winds as the main threats with little to no threat for hail with such relatively warm low levels.
Once the cold front sweeps through, looking at a few days of quiet fall weather until the next boundary approaches next weekend. Models continue to show some run to run consistency on this one. The setup will be determined by the north/south track of the trough. An area of low pressure will move through the Mississippi Valley. That scenario would result in possibly hours or move of much needed steady rainfall to the local area. It’s still a ways out and thus will need to monitor this one as we go through this week.