10/20 – Brittany’s “Slightly Warmer” Thursday Night Forecast

As the deep longwave trough situated over the eastern CONUS this week finally lifts out it will be replaced by a shortwave mid-upper ridge on Friday before flow becomes more zonal over the weekend. High temperatures will warm to slightly above average in the low to mid 80s as a result with surface high pressure dominating the area and suppressing convective development. As the surface high pivots more to the east of our area Friday, winds will become southerly leading to low-level moisture return bringing dewpoints back up into the 50s and low 60s, but precipitable water values will remain below 1″ through Sunday. This indicates the atmospheric column will not be sufficiently moist throughout to support deeper convective development and thus chance of precipitation is near zero during this period. Forecast confidence remains high during this period due to the presence of high pressure leading to use of NBM deterministic guidance for much of the forecast.

Monday will likely feel similar to the weekend if not a little warmer with high temperatures in the 80s and morning low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. However, the pattern aloft will be preparing to change in anticipation of an approaching cold front expected by Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

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