10/2 – Rob’s “Above Seasonal Temperatures” Morning Forecast
High pressure at the surface extended from eastern North Carolina to east Texas. The upper high-pressure will gradually weaken and shifts eastward through Friday. This will allow easterly waves to be somewhat closer to the area than has been the case for the past several days. A weak wave will move across the area late Friday afternoon into Friday night. There are low chances for precipitation over the area through Friday as moisture is rather limited for deep convection. I’m only talking about 20-30% for mainly afternoon showers or t-storms through Friday.
Bigger concern continues to be the hot, dry weather across the area. Yesterday was the hottest October day on record for portions of the area, with the mid and upper 90s still in the cards today. A cold front will affect the region this weekend with our best chance of rain in a while on Sunday/Monday. The good news is that by Monday, high temperatures fall back to the 80 to 85 range, more normal for early October. Overnight lows could even fall into the 50s over the northern half of the area by Wednesday morning.