10/19 – The Chief’s “Approaching Cold Front” Thursday Morning Forecast

An area of upper level high pressure is centered over the Appalachians and over Nevada this morning with a sharp disturbance running from the Great Lakes to the Iowa-Illinois border to north Texas. At the surface, high pressure extended along the Atlantic Coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure over Wisconsin had a cold front to near Kansas City into north Texas.

The upper disturbance to our northwest will push across the area later this afternoon and evening. It gets increasingly difficult to find a legitimate frontal boundary across the local area with the passage of the upper feature. Forecast soundings this afternoon and evening are actually a bit drier than previous runs, with moisture flow very limited through the atmosphere.

South and southwesterly winds today become primarily westerly on Friday after frontal passage. Drier air will filter in during the day well north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors, with dew points likely not falling below 60 from the Interstate corridor southward. Afternoon relative humidity values could fall below 30 percent across about the northwest quarter of the area on Friday.

I see little indication of significant precipitation during the long term period as high pressure builds eastward into the area. High pressure at the surface will shift from the Dakotas to the Carolinas during the long term period. This will essentially be a temperature forecast for the stated long term period.