10/17 – Rob Knight’s IMPROVING CONDITIONS Forecast

The region will remain in a transition zone between a very Summer-like airmass and an unseasonably cold airmass. A very slow moving frontal boundary will gradually drift further south through this afternoon.  Light northeast flow in the low levels will continue to be overrun by a southerly flow in the mid-levels, and this will keep an overcast sky and scattered showers in the forecast through at least midday. A sharp temperature contrast will also persist across the area through this afternoon.

A dry forecast is expected on Thursday except across the offshore coastal waters where weak moisture convergence will spark off showers and thunderstorms through the day. Temperatures will be near normal on Thursday with highs around 80 degrees. Some modification of the airmass should occur by Thursday night. Temperatures will easily climb into the middle to upper 80s Friday afternoon and a southeast wind off the Gulf will advect moisture back into the region.

The ridge will begin to break down Friday night as a fairly strong long-wave trough digs down from the northern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic states. An associated surface front will sweep through the forecast area on Saturday and expect to see a band of showers and thunderstorms accompany this frontal passage. By late Saturday night, the front should be well offshore, and a surge of drier and cooler air can be expected across the region. Low relatively humidity and mostly clear skies will accompany these cooler temperatures. These cooler conditions should persist into Monday with highs in the lower 70s expected after cooling into the 50s Sunday night.