10/16 – Rob’s “Cooler” Wednesday Morning Forecast

A cold front is well on its way this morning as it moves southeast from the Texarkana region. The wind shift is occurring along with the showers/thunderstorms that are found just ahead of the air mass change. This will all pass through the area this morning and stall over the central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday before slowly moving back north toward the coast.

A low pressure system that should form over the southern Gulf tonight into Thursday will move northward forcing the warm front currently located over the northern Gulf into the strong high that will still be moving east over the Southeast U.S. This will create a strong precipitation gradient from onshore to offshore Thursday into Friday. Some of the rainfall may begin to make its way onshore as early as Friday but should be well inland by Saturday.

Tides along the coast should start to react to the southerly flow that will set up
over the eastern half of the Gulf by Friday as well. As the low pressure system moves inland, a chance of severe weather will also be one of the variables to be concerned with. But, all of this will hinge on exactly where the deep tropical plume of moisture moves inland.

Confidence is building with respect to tides moving higher than normal by Friday with the highest values into the weekend due to the path of the surface low over the northern Gulf and its fetch over the eastern half of the Gulf. The rainfall amounts and wind speeds over marine areas have a higher confidence value at the moment as well than that over land areas since the low’s path is expected to be within or at least close to our marine areas but inland impacts will be highly dependent on where the low moves inland. This could be anywhere from the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast.

Return flow ahead of the next cold front should begin once again by late Sunday. This front should move through the area Monday night.

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