1/9 – The Chief’s “Quiet Weather Pattern” Monday Morning Forecast
In a nut shell – Generally quiet weather conditions expected through the short term with near normal temperatures through tonight and above normal temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night.
High pressure will build into the area today and will gradually shift eastward through Tuesday. A fast-moving upper level disturbance will race through the area Monday night, but with little moisture available, only a few isolated showers are in the forecast, mainly across coastal areas and the Gulf.
By Tuesday, the center of the high will shift east of the local area causing winds to become more easterly or even southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. This wind shift will begin to bring moisture back into the area and will kick off a warming trend. The onshore flow strengthens Tuesday night as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of yet another cold front. The associated stronger moisture advection could result in at least patchy fog formation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday, southerly surface winds will help to enhance warm air/moisture advection and instability in the environment. Weak upper level divergence will help to enhance some lifting in the environment as well. As a result, a few will be possible during peak daytime heating hours Wednesday afternoon. Some lightning may be possible with these showers/storms, especially along the LA and MS coastal areas. Thursday into Friday, An approaching cold front will bring showers/t-storms to the area. If
the trough can really dig in a little more and the low pulls south somewhat, then it would really increase the potential to see severe weather. Likewise, if it weakens over the next few days and ends up pulling northward some, then the potential for severe weather would be lower. Friday through the weekend, the front will move off the eastern coast of the US, allowing for stable airmass to dominate the area for the weekend.