1/6 – Rob’s Wednesday Afternoon “Rain Ahead” Forecast

High pressure will move off to the east of the forecast area by this afternoon with an approaching col front to the west. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move eastward into the forecast area by this evening out ahead of the frontal boundary. The risk of any severe weather is minimal at this time with mostly just rain showers being produced and maybe a few rumbles of thunder possible through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning. Drier and much cooler conditions will persist from Thursday afternoon and continue through Friday with temperatures only rebounding into the lower and middle 50s on Thursday and Friday. Near or below freezing temperatures possible Friday night/Saturday morning north of the I-10.

Will it or won’t it snow and if so, where and how much? To be perfectly honest, there is still not a lot of clarity regarding the late weekend system. Though the models continue to agree on the overall situation and pattern, the finer details remain muddied. The farther south the surface low-pressure tracks, the less likely precip will be as overrunning only extends so far north of the warm boundary. For the time being, I’m going to continue to carry the potential for at least a wintry mix overnight Sunday into Monday morning. I don’t think ground temperatures or precip intensity will support any accumulation at this time, but will need to continue monitoring trends.

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