1/5 – The Chief’s “Sunny With Above Seasonal Temperatures” Thursday Morning Forecast
It will be a bit cooler today, but overall a very beautiful day ahead across the lower Mississippi River Valley/North Central Gulf Coast. Aloft, a n upper level disturbance resides over the southeast. Water vapor imagery and forecast soundings are very dry indicating plentiful sunshine today. Surface high pressure will continue to spread into the region, which should limit surface winds keeping things light and variable through the short term period. With the wind direction and dry at the surface, the sea fog machine will remain solidly in the off position.
Friday should be a carbon copy of today (sunny and seasonably mild) with only a few subtle differences. Toward the end of the period, upper level heights will gradually start to increase from west to east as the aforementioned upper trough beings to exit to our east. At the surface, in similar fashion the surface high pressure will continue spreading eastward into Florida allowing for a weak return flow to begin as we round out the short term.
The long term initially focuses in on the upper level high pressure spreading east…although flattening just a bit in time. The mid and upper flow pattern will be on the progressive side. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Carolinas, which will help keep a return flow going into the weekend…gradually helping increase low level moisture. As for temperatures, a slight warming trend begins on Saturday.
To the NW, a weak upper level disturbance will begin to take shape over the southern Plains. With this parent wave a weak surface front is forecast to reside generally from the MO/Ark Ozarks southward to the Texas Hill Country. As the weak trough tries to move east, the front will follow and arrive into our region by Sunday. Although a day or two return flow is enough to gradually increase moisture a bit, the fetch across the northern and Central GOMEX will still limit the overall moisture quality.