1/31 – The Chief’s “WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A stalled cold front is just inside the NW portion of the area this morning. The front will move SE as fast as molasses in winter. It will take from now until just before daylight Wed for this air to make it to the coast. The advisory is out through noon today for the marine areas and this will be left alone as well for now. Until something changes, this should be back over the area nightly. The thing that changes will eventually be a cold front. But not all the area will be in fog tonight. Wednesday night should show similar results as the previous few nights.

The front will gain a bit of energy Wednesday and this is when we will see the amount of showers/t-storms really increase out west. This jet and accompanying boundary will move toward the area Thursday bringing a new stacked cold frontal boundary into the area and this one won’t take as long to get through. The rainfall will also rise in intensity and depending on how fast the front is, will determine how much rainfall any locations get.

Rainfall rates will be in and around the 3″ per hour, but if this line can move fast enough, there would only minor issues, but this is yet to be determined. The boundary should enter the area by 9am Thursday and out by 6pm Thursday. Moisture flow will increase quite a bit which is what is needed for any training with heavy rainfall.

Quite a variation in the forecast for Friday as the main deciding factor is the upper level jet stream. A more progressive pattern will clear skies Friday before noon. A slower pattern will continue to keep clouds in the area through Friday night before clearing.