1/31 – The Chief’s “Warm & Gloomy Pattern” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

A weak cold front overhead will slowly move to the south as fast as molasses in winter. It will take from now until just before daylight Wed for this air to make it to the coast. The main change tonight will be where the boundary ends up overnight. Patchy fog should affect the area once again tonight. The front will gain a bit of energy Wednesday and this is when we will see the amount of showers/t-storms really increase out west. This jet and accompanying boundary will move toward the area Thursday bringing a new stacked cold frontal boundary into the area and this one won’t take as long to get through. The rainfall will also rise in intensity and depending on how fast the front is, will determine how much rainfall any locations get.

Rainfall rates will be in and around the 3″ per hour, but if this line can move fast enough, there would only minor issues, but this is yet to be determined. The boundary should enter the area by 9am Thu and out by 6pm Thu. Moisture flow will increase quite a bit which is what is needed for any training with heavy rainfall. Quite a variation in the forecast for Friday as the main deciding factor is the upper level jet stream. A more progressive pattern will clear skies Friday before noon. A slower pattern will continue to keep clouds in the area through Friday night before clearing.

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