1/23 – Brittany’s “Severe Potential Ahead” Monday Evening Forecast

Bottom line up front…main concern for this forecast package will be with the storm system expected to impact the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with the potential for multiple hazardous weather threats.

Concerns are…1) Severe weather, 2) Excessive rainfall, 3) Wind related issues, and 4) Potential coastal flooding.

By midday Tuesday, low pressure will be developing over east Texas ahead of the upper system, with the pressure gradient tightening significantly. This will shift our winds east, then southeast as the day goes on. Moisture will return rapidly with 850 mb winds increasing to 45 knots by midday and 70 knots by evening per GFSBufr soundings. NAMBufr soundings are only slightly weaker. Precipitable water values will quickly rebound to 1.5 inches. Sustained surface winds are likely to increase to 20-25 mph or even higher Tuesday afternoon, and Wind Advisories will likely be necessary for some or all of the area for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Elevated roadways (like high rise bridges) will likely experience issues during that period.

With the strong east and southeast winds Tuesday and Tuesday night, that`ll be pushing water into some of our usually vulnerable coastal exposures for about a 12 hour period. Fortunately, astronomical tide ranges are decreasing, but coastal flood issues can`t be ruled out during Tuesday night`s high tide cycle. We`ll be looking at that today as well. In much of the area Tuesday, high temperatures are likely to occur during the evening hours as the area gets into the warm sector, before a pretty quick drop off behind the front, which should clear the area prior to sunrise Wednesday. Fortunately, it looks like several days of quiet but mostly cool weather behind tomorrow`s system. There is the potential for freezing temperatures for a large portion of the area Thursday and Friday mornings. However, no hard freezes are anticipated, and nothing really out of line for what we`d expect in the area for late January, about 5-10 degrees below normal for highs and lows. The next southern stream system is forecast to move across the area on Sunday, but doesn`t look nearly as impactful as the current one.

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