1/2 – The Chief’s “Severe Potential Ahead” Monday Afternoon Forecast
Sea fog will also pin right along the coast today so not expecting much improvement from earlier this morning. Outside of the fog, eyes start to shift upstream today as a disturbance within the larger scale pattern over the high plains begins to move northeastward during the day and into the evening. This negatively tilted disturbance will begin to spark shower and thunderstorm activity to our north and west today. Within a rich boundary layer, there is some potential for isolated low-topped showers in the area.
Going into tonight a band of convection near or just ahead of a trailing cold front will develop across the ArkLaTex region and gradually shift toward our area by daybreak on Tuesday. As the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to exit toward the Great Lakes region, this feature begins to slow down as it begins to line up with the upper level SW Flow. Tuesday we’ll need to watch for both severe as models are showing a fairly active day severe weather wise on Tuesday. The initial ongoing convection will need to be monitored as it gradually shifts east over the region Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, within the warm sector there is a concern for super cellular activity (with all severe hazards possible) to develop ahead of the primary band of convection along the front.
After the frontal passage, expect more seasonable temperatures and fair skies will be present for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 60s with low temperatures bottoming out in the 30s along/north of I-10 on Friday morning, but generally near average through this period.