1/16 – The Chief’s “Above Seasonal Temps Return” Monday Morning Forecast
We start to enter a more active weather pattern starting today as an upper level disturbance moves eastward with an associated front forming at the surface. Ahead of this we continue to see southerly flow bring moisture into the area. As the surface front moves in some isolated to scattered showers are likely across some areas of the area, but some areas also likely stay completely dry. These showers will be most likely this evening through early Tuesday morning.
Onshore flow continues through the early week, keeping temperatures above the climate norms for this time of year. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s across the area. We see a short break in the rain and storms Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday before our next system makes its approach.
A stronger disturbance is expected to swing across the Central Plains through mid-week, with a surface low forming at the surface. A subsequent surface cold front will form and slide across the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday and into Thursday. A line of convection associated with this frontal boundary will move into our area later Wednesday, lasting into the overnight hours and early Thursday. At this time we have moderate to strong confidence that we will see showers and thunderstorms move through our area. Confidence in any strong to severe storms is lower as this system does have a good synoptic setup, but the best forcing will remain north of us. Knowing this, would not be surprised to see a strong storm or two develop as the front rolls through. The main risk would be damaging winds as wind fields look decent.
This front exits the region on Thursday as a cooler and drier air mass moves in. Overnight low temperatures following the front will drop into the low to mid 40s for some areas while high temperatures fall closer to climate normals for this time of year in the low to upper 60s. Upstream another shortwave takes shape and digs down into the Southern Plains late week and into the weekend. This will pull the old cold front from Thursday back up into the region as a warm front on Saturday. This will end up being our next weather maker as precip chances jump up to 60-70% through the weekend.