1/1 – Rob Knight’s “1st Day of 2020” Changing Forecast

The main forecast concerns will be in the short term, with heavy rain threats as well as a marginal severe weather threat.

Surface flow will become more southerly later today and allow for significant moisture advection into the region. Precipitation will start reaching the surface after midnight tonight west of the area and gradually shift eastward during the day on Thursday. A pre-frontal trough will move through the area Thursday night, with the upper low and main push of cold air not moving through the area until Friday afternoon/night.

The heavy rain threat appears to be mainly near the Atchafalaya Basin, where 2 to 4 inches of rain looks likely between midnight Thursday Friday morning. With dew points to increase into the mid and upper 60s across the area during the daytime hours on Thursday, there should be sufficient instability for at least some thunderstorms ahead of the main system.

The SPC has a MARGINAL RISK for Thursday with the main threat just ahead of the prefrontal trough during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Rain is not expected to completely end until overnight Friday night. We may also see a Wind Advisory for a brief time Friday night or Saturday morning.

Categories: Weather Headlines

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *