09/30 – Brantly’s “Mild and Dry” Wednesday Morning Forecast

A reinforcing surge of dry cool air will move through the area Thursday night into Friday keeping these conditions through the weekend. This is when the next tropical disturbance is expected to initialize over the NW Caribbean. As this disturbance moves closer to the Yucatan Peninsula, deep tropical moisture will feed into the Central and Northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of yet another cold front Sunday.

This next cold front in the early part of the coming week will be capable of producing some showers and possibly some thunderstorms well north of the area. However, a strong ridge of high pressure over the southern end of the front will cause a depletion of whatever rain manages to develop to the NW of the area. This bridging of fronts is very common this time of year and speaks to the strength and aggressiveness of the large high pressure regions that visit this time of year.

Basically, our area should continue to enjoy dry weather even into the next week. The ridging that develops behind the weekend front looks to settle over the Deep South which should keep any tropical activity moving west or back into the Atlantic.

Models at the moment are settling on a continued westward track of the first system over the Yucatan and southern gulf. The GFS model is showing a second system to move through the NW Caribbean by the end of next week. The overall synoptic pattern would also suggest either a westward or NE movement as the stacked high remains strong over the deep south. Global models seem to handle the larger weather patterns better than local and regional patterns, so if the larger scale patterns shake out, this normal October tropical activity would be kept away. But it is always a good idea to stay vigilant during any part of the tropical season.

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