09/16 – Brantly’s “Flash Flood Watch Extended” Thursday Morning Forecast
Today, the focus will become more toward rainfall rates and not as much on rainfall totals area wide. Rates could be around 2 to 3 inches per hour today through Saturday and isolated areas could see 3 to 5 inches over that time frame. But area wide totals would be more in line with 1 to 2 inches. The Flash Flood Watch has been extended until 7 p.m. Friday.
Regardless, looking at current conditions, soils are saturated for many locations and these rates would surely push those areas into flash flooding. The majority of this should be driven by daytime heating but some areas of heavy rain will be found overnight as well. The remnants of Nicholas will meander around the SW part of Louisiana today but will finally get pulled northward Friday and out of the state by Friday night.
The problem is the wake these systems leave behind is basically a plume of tropical moisture itself keeping the potential for heavy rain going through Saturday. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue each day, being most numerous over land during the day, and over marine areas at night.