09/13 – Brantly’s Sunday Night Tropical Weather Update

(WXXV) – As of 10 p.m. Sunday, maximum sustained winds were about 60 miles per hour with higher gusts.

Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or two, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center of circulation.

Sally is moving toward the northwest at 8 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A slower west- northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest Monday night and Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area Monday night. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi coasts through Tuesday.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

• A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Fourchon, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.
• A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.
• A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border.
• A Hurricane Watch is in effect from east of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from east of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Florida and from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to west of Morgan City, Louisiana.
• A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida to Ochlockonee River, Florida
• A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday into Wednesday.

Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week.

This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Changes to forecast track and intensity are likely over the next few days. Check back for updates.