09/08 – Brantly’s “Humid with Scattered Storms” Wednesday Morning Forecast

 The disturbance over the central Gulf of Mexico is becoming a little better organized this morning, and more models seem to be in a little better agreement with regard to a brief, minimal development of the disturbance. This system is expected to initially move north- northeast through noon today, and then turn northeast over the remainder of near term as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. NHC is still giving the disturbance a 50 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours. NHC indicates that conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for tropical or subtropical development tonight as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. At this time, most available data suggests that most of the impacts associated with this system, will likely be primarily just east of our forecast area.

Regardless of development, we will see an increase in moisture and higher rain chances for our area today as the ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and southeast of I-10 increase in coverage and expand inland. By this afternoon we have likely to definite showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage along and southeast of I-10. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threat associated with these storms today and tonight, particularly over coastal areas where WPC has highlighted with a Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall. Some locations in this area could see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Thursday, and depending on exactly how things play out, with locally higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches along the coastal sections possible.

Daytime highs are forecast range mostly in the mid to upper 80s Friday. A hint of Fall for end of the week lows, trending cooler with numbers dipping down into the lower to mid 60s along and north of I-10. Upper 60s to lower 70s along the beaches.

East to southeast flow will take hold on Saturday and persist through Tuesday, ushering moisture back into the region through the extended period. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the weekend. Lows will begin in the 60s north of I-10 and in the lower 70s south of I-10 Saturday night. Temperatures will then rebound Sunday and Monday nights to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and in the lower to mid 70s near the coast.

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