08/26 – Brantly’s “Tracking the Tropics” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

 Winds from the east and southeast will continue to bring moisture from the Gulf — a primary ingredient for increased rainfall across the area today. A strong tropical wave will move right across the area today and tomorrow bringing pretty adequate moisture to the area to assist in the increased rainfall potential. There are already showers and thunderstorms beginning to ramp up off shore right now and expect for to storms to move inland a little earlier in the day then typical. The main threat today will be some gusty winds and heavy rainfall rates of 1- 3 inches per hour capable of producing flooding in localized areas where storms form. Friday into Saturday, expect even more efficient rainfall to penetrate the area increasing localized flooding, with rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. There is potential for flooding in flood-prone and low –lying areas. The bright side to this surge of rainfall over the area is that daytime temperatures will stay out of heat advisory criteria as thunderstorms and cloud cover will keep high temperatures in upper 80s to low 90s during the day and low 70s at night.

Going into the early part of next week, the main threat is the tropical system in the Caribbean. The latest GFS model brings the system into Southeast Louisiana on Sunday, while the latest European model brings it into Southeast Louisiana on Monday. At this point in time, the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that increased winds, rain, and higher sea state will be a factor. Impacts beyond this will depend on what this system wants to do. Even after the fact, any impacts will depend on where the system heads.

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