08/19 – Rob Knight’s “Afternoon T-Storms Possible” Wednesday Forecast
A stationary front will linger over the area through Thursday night. Conditions continue to
look favorable for increased t-storm activity today during the late afternoon and evening hours, and have rain chances of 30 to 40 percent forecasted.
There continues to be concerned about the downdraft potential with any stronger thunderstorms that form today, and feel that an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will easily climb into the lower to middle 90s before the thunderstorm activity develops. Convection should begin to gradually dissipate and shift offshore through the overnight hours.
The upper level low pressure over Mississippi will slowly lift north to the Tennessee Valley Friday through Saturday. Moisture content will gradually increasing each day, and some
higher rainfall rates of around 2 inches per hour will be possible with the strongest storms on Sunday. The forecast calls for rain chances of around 40 percent each day which is near normal for August. Temperatures will also be near normal with highs in lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
Still some uncertainty exists next Monday and Tuesday. Models show a surge of deep tropical moisture and at a minimum as tropical wave will move across the Gulf of Mexico. At a minimum, the increase in moisture will allow for higher t-storm coverage both Monday and Tuesday and a greater risk of heavy rainfall that could lead to some localized flooding issues.