06/15 – Brantly’s “Hot with Afternoon Pop-Up Showers” Tuesday Forecast
Temps should be low to mid 90s today and with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will rise to over 100, but stay below the Heat Advisory criteria of 108.
Wednesday and Thursday will be a gradual transition into a brief drier period as the high pressure to the west slightly expands farther east over the area and the trough to the east pulls farther away. There will still be afternoon showers and thunderstorms popping up, but coverage will be a little less each day with possibly none as we end the week.
All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico where NHC shows a high chance of a tropical cyclone of some sort developing in the next 5 days. With no significant circulation ongoing at this time, the models will not handle the details very well. Most of the models are offering different solutions, not only with location, but with timing as well. The main threat certainly looks to be heavy rainfall at this time, with rainstorms potentially beginning to impact the area as early as Friday.
The local area should at least be aware of the potential for heavy (and potentially very heavy) rainfall over the weekend. A few inches to well over a foot of rain are certainly a possibility, but confidence isn’t very high at this time. Now is the time to be thinking about how to prepare if you live in a flood-prone area. Any areas that experience heavy rainfall with this system aren’t likely to see highs much above the lower 80s, and may need to drop current forecast temperatures a few degrees.