05/14 – Rob Knight’s “Rain Finally Returns” Thursday Morning Forecast
Starting out early this morning, short-range models continue to support a very moist atmosphere across the area. This will keep low clouds and some patchy fog in generally the same areas that experienced them yesterday. Any lingering fog will quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise, but mostly cloudy skies and low clouds will prevail through the day today.
Quick overview of the weather maps this morning shows the same surface high once anchored across the Great lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states has pressed east out into the Atlantic, which continues to promote strong southeasterly Gulf return flow of moisture across the area. The closer proximity to the high yesterday helped keep a lid on area t-storms generally east of I-55, but that will change for today as much deeper moisture has pulled into the area. Activity will spark much earlier today, possibly as early as mid to late morning and continuing through the afternoon. A few storms today may be on the strong side, and will be watched closely. Good news is this will be a much needed soaker today for many, with all storms likely coming to an end before 8 to 9 p.m., with dry and humid conditions overnight.
Not much changing by Friday, with another round of showers/storms in the late AM through afternoon and evening. Coverage should be similar, if not slightly less but the overall strong storm risk will be lower. By early Saturday, focus begins to shift out west as we see the signs of a developing upper-level low progressing eastward across Texas. There is a good chance for a large area of showers/t-storms racing somewhere across the area at some point late Saturday or Sunday.