05/12 – Rob Knight’s “Mild” Tuesday Forecast
Not much changes to discuss as we roll into the day today. We have begun to see a slow transition from post-frontal dry air filtered in by northerly winds to now a slow and steady moistening trend. As we get in to the day on Wednesday, we begin to shift focus to the west as a weak disturbance rides a quasi-zonal flow aloft.
It’ll be by Thursday when we start to see stronger deep-moist ascent, leading to a bit better instability. A very early summertime-like pattern, which supports widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a 30 to 50% chance confined west of I-55, with isolated to scattered chances elsewhere.
Beyond Thursday into the upcoming weekend, a few more weak disturbances will continue to slowly transition west to east, helping to locally enhance shower/storm coverage along with afternoon destabilization. This weekend becomes interesting, as models are in good agreement over the idea of strong high-pressure developing across the central US. Underneath this ridge, a weak disturbance will press east across northern Mexico and becomes caught in the weak flow/blocking pattern across central Texas to western Louisiana. With such strong ridging anchored almost directly over our area beyond the weekend into next week, much hotter temperatures may be a good bet, meaning the dog days of summer are right around the corner!