04/21 – Rob Knight’s “Pattern Changing” Tuesday Forecast

The next system we’re watching will be a potent disturbance currently over California that is expected to emerge in the southern plains region on Wednesday. This disturbance along with an associated potent surface low and cold front will move across the mid to lower Mississippi valley region Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Moderate to strong southerly winds in advance of the cold front will bring ample low level moisture and instability to support thunderstorm development starting in western portions of the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon and the remaining areas Wednesday night into Thursday. The combination of strongest lift/dynamics and shear/instability will likely impact the region Wednesday night when the area in a Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

A complex of t-storms is most likely to bring a threat of damaging winds and some hail. The tornado threat is conditional at this point as to how much instability is maintained overnight Wednesday night. Depending on how slow the cold front pushes through Thursday, there could be a lingering threat of thunderstorms during the day on Thursday in at least coastal areas.

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