04/16 – Rob Knight’s “Comfortable” Thursday Forecast

Today will bring mild, pleasant sunny conditions across the forecast area with a few degrees warmer daytime temperature. Breezy conditions will continue with winds gusting into the upper teens to low 20 mph range at times.

Surface flow will veer steadily to easterly flow throughout the day then southeasterly tonight into Friday to start the moisture advection process back into the area. Aloft, flow pattern remains quite zonal through Saturday though compressing to the north as a weak cold front will move rapidly through the northern branch to bring a frontal zone into the area but struggling to move off the coast.

This front is indicated by models to stall then retreat northward Sunday before being forced back southward with a stronger surge of cold
air from the Plains States.

Picking up on Sunday, this should once again be the most active day of the forecast package, but hopefully less eventful than Easter Sunday. Four-corner disturbance will move east to induce amplification of instability over and just east of the Mississippi Valley.

This will enhance regional omega for widespread rainfall production and storminess. Given the pattern, instability should remain limited and heavy rainfall would be the greater threat, given the extent of the dynamics in play. Beyond Sunday, cooler and drier air mass returns for the early half of next week.

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