03/24 – Brantly’s “Flood Threat Continues” Wednesday Morning Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue to push into the area from the southeast with deep Gulf moisture.
Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This is causing urban and small stream flooding. As of early this morning, 3 and 5 inches of rain had already fallen across the area according to radar estimates. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected over the area. Ditches and other drainage areas are at capacity. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. Roadways and access areas prone to minor flooding could become impassable. A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until early Friday morning.
In addition to flash flooding concerns, river flooding will also be possible. A Flood Warning is in effect for the Biloxi River near Lyman in Harrison County. The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12 feet Wednesday evening. At 12 feet, River Road near Three Rivers Road bridge will begin to flood.
Main short term question is what happens with the boundary along the lower Louisiana coast, and the associated heavy rain shield. Current indications are that the stationary front responsible for this nasty weather should sink a little further off the coast through the morning hours before starting to return northward late this afternoon. This will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon or evening. Any prolonged heavy rain in the area will most likely be almost entirely runoff and likely to cause minor flooding issues.
The Arizona shortwave lifts into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday evening with one final round of convection during the afternoon into the early evening hours. Certainly sufficient instability and shear for a few strong to severe storms, and another brief round of heavy rainfall.
Friday will be a day in between systems as boundary shifts east and south of the area with little or no precipitation expected.