03/21 – Brantly’s “Cool and Calm” Sunday Night Forecast
High pressure will linger over the area tonight through Monday, which will help to limit rain chances. Winds will be shifting from northerly to southerly during the next day or two, so some moisture and warm air will be able to move back into the region. Highs on Monday will be around normal for this time of the year as a result with highs in the low 70s in most locations.
Tuesday through Thursday, a low pressure system will move through the area and stall as it progresses eastward, which will enhance rain chances for the area throughout this time period. Southerly surface winds will act to enhance the moisture availability and warm air moving into the region ahead of and during the system moving across the Gulf Coast. Due to the slow moving nature of this system, training storms will be very possible during this event. And the potential for heavy rainfall, especially Tuesday overnight into Wednesday and Wednesday night will be a concern. Model trends have been showing better consensus today than previous days for our area. In general, looking at the models, our area could see rainfall amounts ranging from 7 to 10 inches for the next 5 days, tonight through Friday evening, with locally higher amounts certainly possible.
On Thursday, there is also the possibility of severe weather for our area. This is still very uncertain and will depend on how the system develops over the next few days. There will be plenty of moisture and warm air in the environment due to the southerly surface winds leading up to Thursday, which will help enhance instability.