NOAA releases 2026 Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook

Forecasters are predicting a slightly below-normal season

52 minutes ago

Sam Lucey,

2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

As the start of the 2026 hurricane season approaches, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a slightly below-average season across the Atlantic Basin. NOAA’s seasonal outlook calls for between 8 and 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher. The long-term seasonal average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

average amount of tropical activity occurring from june 1 to november 30

Average tropical activity occurring between June 1 and November 30

Researchers at Colorado State University expect activity to be closer to average, however, still below normal, forecasting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes during the 2026 season. While the numbers may not appear especially high compared to some recent hyperactive years, experts emphasize that storm totals alone do not determine how impactful a season may become.

El Nino Impacts on tropical season

One of the primary factors influencing this year’s forecast is the potential development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures become warmer than average across parts of the equatorial Pacific. While that warming happens far from the Atlantic, it can significantly affect hurricane development closer to home.

During El Niño years, stronger upper-level winds often develop across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic. Those stronger winds create wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. High wind shear can disrupt thunderstorms trying to organize into tropical systems, shearing storms apart and preventing them from strengthening efficiently. Because of this, El Niño years often feature fewer Atlantic hurricanes overall and can limit the number of major hurricanes that form.

Even with forecasts pointing toward a season that may be closer to average, officials continue to stress the importance of preparation. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to create devastating impacts along the Gulf Coast or Atlantic shoreline. Residents are encouraged to review hurricane plans, restock emergency supplies, and stay updated on forecasts throughout the season.