7/7 – Rob Martin’s “Heat Peaks Friday Then Wetter” Thursday Evening Forecast

Some heat has returned to the gulf coast today, with Pascagoula checking in with a real-feel of 110 degrees at 1 PM. High pressure will continue to shape the forecast into the weekend. As an upper level disturbance digs through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, it will push a weak frontal boundary toward the area. So, expect similar weather Friday with temps and real-feels a couple degrees higher. The front nears Saturday, and as of now we’re bumping the thunderstorm chances back up to 30-40% that day.

Wind fields remain very light and shear is limited across the area, so the main concern through tomorrow will be isolated spots of very heavy rainfall. On Saturday, as the frontal boundary tries to work into the area, shear might be a little better across the northeast half of the area, but not remarkably so. Still, we can’t rule out a strong isolated storm Saturday.

We’ll also have to keep an eye on heat index values the next few days. The max heat index values are creeping up toward the 108F criteria we generally use for advisories briefly each day, with potential for them to be exceeded in a few areas Friday and Saturday if thunderstorms are slow to develop. Day shift can reassess this for the afternoon forecast package. Sunday into next week, there will likely be daily round of showers and storms once the convective temperatures are reached, and it’s looking wetter overall again. That’s around 90 degrees Sunday and Monday, but more likely to be in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Similar to Saturday, there’ll be at least a small threat of gusty winds Sunday and Monday, but that threat diminishes beyond that point.