1/16 – Rob’s “Warming Temps” Mid-Week Forecast

Surface high pressure remains centered across the southern Gulf Coast with a very weak upper level shortwave is tracking across the local region early this morning. The swath of rain south of the area will continue east this morning and be out of the area by the afternoon. Near normal temperatures expected today but probably will be a slow start to warming as clouds are still in place.

Temperatures will be moderating over the next few days as high pressure builds from west to east across the southern 1/4 of the country. A weak cold front will move into the region Thursday. This will spark the development of scattered showers across the forecast area as the boundary slides north of us. Rain potential will elevate Friday as the boundary gets reinforced with an upper level disturbance merging with the surface cold front. Another cold front moving in from Canada will first bring high rain chances Saturday followed by an arctic air mass Sunday into Monday. The concern with t-storms Saturday on the leading edge of the frontal boundary will bring the potential for severe weather.

All modes of SEVERITY will be possible with the main threat being STRONG WINDS.

Once the back side of the rain pushes east early Sunday morning, cold air will be quickly moving in. In terms of frozen precip potential, the timing just won`t line up with moisture exiting before temperatures cold enough to support frozen precip arrives. Temperatures will struggle to get into the 40s with some locations in northern zones possibly remaining in the upper 30s on Sunday. Hard freeze conditions may be possible Sunday night for the northern half of the area as temperatures plummet into the mid to possibly lower 20s.