First 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook released Thursday

Fort Collins, Colo (WXXV) — Colorado State University released its first outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, calling for a slightly below-average season overall. The forecast predicts 13 named storms, including 6 hurricanes, with 2 of those being major hurricanes, which is just below the long-term average of roughly 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The main factor behind the quieter outlook is the expected development of El Niño conditions heading into the heart of hurricane season. El Niño often increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which can disrupt storm formation and limit strengthening. CSU forecasters say this atmospheric setup is expected to be the dominant influence during the peak months of August through October.

Sea surface temperatures are also playing a role. While waters in the western Atlantic and Gulf remain relatively warm, slightly cooler anomalies across parts of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic may also help suppress activity.

Even with a below-average forecast, experts stress that it only takes one storm to make it an impactful season, especially for Gulf Coast communities. Seasonal outlooks provide a broad picture of expected activity across the basin, but they do not predict where storms may track or make landfall.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.