National Hurricane Center unveils new tropical products ahead of the 2026 season
As part of a suite of product improvements for the 2026 hurricane season, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) is implementing two new tropical products and services for the 2026 hurricane season, including a new operational hurricane track cone map and new storm surge alerts for Hawaii.
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone
The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast. In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds.
Example of the 2026 version of the cone graphic for Hurricane Milton 2024 with inland watches and warnings
What to Know About the New Cone Graphic:
- Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
- Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone
- Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines)
- Full and intermediate Tropical Cyclone advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov
NHC will also be introducing a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.
Beginning in 2026, the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point, allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.
The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories. During the experimental phase, technical issues could affect the timeliness or availability of the graphic.
Example Storm Surge Watch and Warning for the Hawaiian Islands
What to Know About the New Storm Surge Products for Hawaii:
- Delivers probability-based forecasts of water and storm surge levels within 72 hours of hurricane impacts
- Incorporates forecast inputs such as storm track, wind intensity, and wind radii
- Publicly available for the main Hawaiian Islands
These new and improved products and services are a continuation of NHC’s focus to improve public safety messaging and advance the public’s understanding of hazards associated with tropical storms.
Resources:
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone: A conversation with Jamie Rhome
