11/8 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Big Pine” Friday Night Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

It`s been apparent over the last 6 hours or so that Rafael is increasingly being affected by shear and dry air, looking significantly weaker than at the beginning of our shift. Mid and upper level steering will eventually collapse and strand a weakening Rafael over the central Gulf later in the weekend. In fact, it is fairly likely to be only a tropical storm by this time tomorrow. But as the upper low over New Mexico lifts northeastward toward the Great Lakes, deeper moisture associated with Rafael will get pulled northward into Louisiana and Mississippi. That being said, forecast precipitable water values across the local area tomorrow are actually forecast to be lower than what they were this morning.