6/14 – Sam’s Parker’s “Toasty Into The Weekend” Friday Forecast

High pressure becomes centered over the region and the activity will remain suppressed today and tomorrow. Very dry air aloft associated with subsiding air will effectively cap off any rain chances over most of the forecast area. Temperatures will also be warmer than average with reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Fortunately, with the drier air mixing down to the surface will keep dew-points just low enough to produce heat index values of 100 to 105. These values are below our advisory criteria, but those who are more susceptible to heat illness including children and the elderly should limit time outdoors today and Saturday.

High pressure will move east Sunday, and this will open the door for a plume of deeper tropical moisture to begin feeding into the region. This will allow for greater t-storm activity from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.  The highest rain chances will be along the immediate coast and offshore where the deepest moisture is expected. There will be some locally higher rainfall rates Sunday into Sunday night, and this could lead to some street flooding issues in poorly drained and low lying areas. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal averages on Sunday into Sunday night due to the increase activity.

The region will remain on the western edge of a high pressure system as deep tropical moisture will continue to feed into the region. The result will be numerous showers and t-storms forming each day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s. Storm motion will remain decent at 10 to 15 knots on Monday and Tuesday with a further increase to around 20 knots on Wednesday. However, very high rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour with the strongest convection could lead to some localized flash flooding issues each day next week.