2/14 – The Chief’s “Sunny & Cool” Valentine’s Day Morning Forecast

A post frontal airmass continues to push into the region with the center of surface ridge currently over the state of Mississippi. The remainder of this short term is rather simple with the atmosphere being suppressed, an abundance of sunshine with uneventful conditions expected through Friday morning.

A broad region of enhanced upper level forcing will develop over the Gulf South on Friday and continue into Saturday. This forcing will be driven by the area remaining stuck beneath the right entrance region of a very strong upper-level jet maximum. This increased lift will interact with a zone of enhanced moisture already in place across the western Gulf, and the result will be the development of a surface low pressure system by Friday off the coast of Texas. A southwest flow will be isentropically lifted over a cooler and more stable airmass at the surface as early as Friday afternoon, but more likely by Friday night.  The result will be widespread light to moderate stratiform rainfall across the entire forecast area. Temperatures will be near or even slightly below average due to the extensive cloud cover and rainfall in place with readings only warming into the low to mid 60s.

Friday night will see the highest rainfall potential across the region as the surface low tracks south of the area through the central GOMEX.  At this time, it looks like the greatest forcing associated will be on the north and northwest side of the low will remain just offshore over the northern Gulf waters. If this stays true, this will keep the axis of heaviest rainfall along the Louisiana coast and offshore.  Periods of light to moderate rain will be more likely further inland across the remainder of the area, and this is reflected by lower precip values of 60 to 70 percent as opposed to the 80 percent and higher rain chances along the coast.