6/20 – The Chief’s “Less Humid Flow” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Outflow boundary is firing new cells this morning where it meets the surface front just to the N/NW of our area. Stability should begin to increase over this area as the morning progresses, so a general weakening trend should begin heading into this afternoon. New activity should begin to fire by mid to late morning back over the gulf and reach inland again as the day moves forward. This is due to the almost stalled nature of the surface front. Later in the day another area of activity will get started farther NW and move SE. This will likely be helped along by outflow boundaries again interacting with this surface front. All of this new activity should do much of the same as yesterday’s has done with heavy rainfall and the potential for severe t-storms. The training issue with heavy rain will remain a real threat today due to the slow movement of the front.

The FLASH FLOOD watch will remain where it is but will be extended through 10 PM since the storms that develop during the late afternoon look to continue well into the evening hours. By Wednesday morning the surface front should have moved to the coast and the same style of convective bursts look to continue near the coast and over the near shore waters. But the majority of land areas could be almost rain free with somewhat drier air. Heat warnings will likely go away for at least several days. But advisory may continue for a portion of the area.

The stalled surface front will stay along the coast Wed night, with it moving back north Thursday. This could bring thunderstorms back to the area starting over the sound then moving into south Mississippi Friday and possibly Saturday. This front will become diffuse with time but will have moved to the NE by Sun into Mon.