9/2 – Brittany’s “Finally Friday” Afternoon Forecast

Winds will shift to a more light to moderate southerly direction by later today. This flow will help spread abundant gulf moisture back into the region and should allow for a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms going into the upcoming holiday weekend.

Tomorrow really starts the prolonged wet pattern. By tomorrow morning, short term models agree that deep tropical moisture will surge back into the area and bring in above average PW values of 2.1- 2.2 across the entire area. This will be caused by the H5 trough  currently over the southern plains. We look to stay east of the trough axis throughout the short term, which creates better forcing for these storms. In terms of storm motion, these storms will be moving pretty slow, if at all. Short range models suggest storm motions will be about 5 mph. The slow storm movement and the heavy rainfall associated with the previously mentioned PW values poses a risk for localized flash flooding. This especially is true for urban areas, as they tend to flood more frequently. Sunday will be more of the same as Saturday as we will still be influenced by the aforementioned trough. PW looks to be slightly lower (~2 inches), but the same forcing will still be in place. Models also agree that storm motions will increase to about 10 mph on Sunday. Therefore, Sunday has a lower flooding threat than Saturday, but any place where multiple storms move over in succession will see a flash flooding threat, especially urban areas. The convection on both days will be mostly diurnally driven and will be enhanced by local seabreeze and lakebreeze boundaries.

On the bright side, the increase in convection will lower the temperatures. Maximum temps look to only reach the mid to upper 80s tomorrow and Saturday in response to the increased storm coverage. Today was the warmest day for the weekend across the area.