9/16 – Brittany’s “Warm” Friday Evening Forecast

Saturday is looking nice to start yet again with some low-level clouds around. Main focus will be the continued return of low-level moisture drifting north adding to that old familiar more humid feel to the air. Gulf moisture return continues to deepen throughout the late morning and afternoon revealing a more moist low-level mixed profile. However, this ascending moist layer remains sandwiched right underneath the residual dry air in the H7 to H5 layer owing to a persistently warm mid-level thermal profile by compressional warming.

By Monday, we begin to see a transition in the mid to upper-level pattern as ridging builds and strengthens over the southern Plains. The position of the mid-level height center and attendant surface high nearby or just to our northwest will support largely NE flow helping to drive drier continental air into the region (PW `1.0 to 1.2″). Given anomalously high heights and drier air, this will support above-normal temperatures with dry conditions persisting. No major changes against recent forecast trends with highs 5-8 degrees above normal through mid-week and no notable impacts expected. Sorry fake-fall, you were nice when you lasted but we`ll see you again soon!