9/15 – Rob Knight’s “Flash Flood Watch” Morning Forecast
TD Nicholas is weakening near the Lake Charles area. Drier air has been wrapping around the southwest quadrant of the storm. Satellite appearance is more resembling of an extra-tropical pattern. The main concern will, of course, be heavy rainfall, with the largest portion of it to occur in the next 12-18 hours. Moisture flow never really falls off to any great extent, remaining elevated above climatological normal.
Hourly rainfall rates can be 1.5 to 2 inches (and possibly higher) in the bands crawling eastward across the area. 24 hour precipitation totals through tonight are expected to be in the 3-6 inch range, with locally much higher amounts, mainly near and to the east of Interstate 55. West of there, totals may be more in the 1-3 inch range. With Nicholas expected to eventually dissipate near the area, we don’t see any real significant drying in the short term period. Daytime convection will continue. It won’t be as widespread as it is today, but the threat for isolated heavy rain amounts will continue for much of the area. Likely to categorical rain chances each day, with high temperatures remaining mainly in the 80s.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Thursday 7 AM