9/15 – Brittany’s “Quiet” Thursday Night Forecast

Going into Friday, the surface high steadily builds east into New England, as we begin to see less in the way of influence over the region. We in turn begin to see a bit of a slow northward jog with the front over marine areas, coincided with subtle impulses of westward surging enhancements of PW fighting right on the fringe of the dry continental airmass in place.

As we enter the weekend, the slow but steady moistening trend persists as we see deeper, moist marine air creep north. This will help keep scattered shower/few storms around primarily confined to areas along and south of I-10/12 thru Sunday. The upper-level ridge and attendant surface low presses east, eventually offshore the east coast, but we then see mid-level ridging beginning to build over the southern Plains. Be aware that our proximity to the mid-level high develops re-enforcing northeasterly mean flow aloft which may owe to advect drier east coast continental air southwest into parts of the northern Gulf. What this means going into early next week: Leaning drier and hot yet again under close influence of a deep 588dm ridging, strengthening to 594dm yielding a confident trend in above-normal temperatures and large-scale suppression of daily diurnal shower/storm chances. No long-term modifications needed as deterministic NBM remains generally above the 50th percentile in ensemble spreads with low to mid 90`s a pretty good bet – averaging around 5 above normal. Summer just won’t go away just yet, but we`re heading in the right direction.