9/11 Chris’s “Hot Afternoon” Monday Afternoon Forecast

Upper level high pressure  this afternoon is centered over the Gulf of California extending northward through the northern Rockies. Weakness extended from the Appalachians into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with another weakness from Hudson Bay into the northern Plains States. At the surface, the remnants of an old frontal boundary remained over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but losing definition pretty quickly.

While the Appalachians weakness begins to shears out, another disturbance moving through the northern Plains States will push the next frontal boundary toward the area. Low and mid-level flow will gradually become southerly today, but won’t really be reflected in moisture levels as noted by models through this afternoon. Even through Tuesday afternoon, values only increase, it will still be well below the daily mean climatologically for this time of year. I can’t entirely rule out a few showers or storms by tomorrow afternoon, but they’ll be very limited in areal coverage. Humidity levels will remain rather comfortable today, but we will notice a bit of a difference tomorrow as dew points to the south of Interstate 10 creep back up above the 70 degree mark. High temperatures should for the most part remain between 90 and 95 the next couple of days, but wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two spots sneak a little higher than that.

As upper high pressure will remain over northern Mexico, that leaves the local area in general west-northwest flow for Wednesday through Saturday. Multiple disturbances moving through
that flow will bring a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms for the 2nd half of the week.