8/8 – Brittany’s “Plenty of Moisture” Monday Afternoon Forecast
If we thought we had a lot of rain and coverage today it looks like things will ramp up over the next 3 days. We start tomorrow as we begin to feel the impacts of the TUTT and a tropical wave moving through the north-central Gulf. The Tropical wave will bring in even richer tropical moisture where the TUTT will actually provide better mid level support leading to deeper and more persistent storms. Combine that with weak steering currents and we have the recipe for locally heavy rain again and possibly over a slightly larger area. The biggest issue though is this along with today may just be priming the soil for Wednesday and Thursday.
Moving into Wednesday and Thursday the heavy rain potential will increase with the greatest risk of flash flooding on Thursday. After two active days with widespread rainfall of 0.5 to 3″ and locally higher amounts, possibly approaching 5-6 inches in some locations and there could be some very saturated soils by Wednesday. Deep moisture will still be entrenched across the region but the one possible good thing is there is the possibility we could be between tropical waves. The first should move in tomorrow but the next one which is surging through Cuba right now may stay south until a stronger tropical wave moves in Thursday. If that wave over Cuba though move more to the northwest tonight and tomorrow then it will impact the region Wednesday and Wednesday will be a carbon copy of Tuesday. A very rich atmosphere, lift aloft or a decent weakness at least, instability, and efficient rain, and we have the recipe for areas of heavy rain for the 3rd straight day. Given the amount of rainfall recently, what has occurred today, and what is expected Tuesday and Wednesday WPC has now put most of the area under a Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall. But Thursday could be the greatest impact from rainfall.